Despite a tripling of silver imports to India this year to 6,000 tonnes, a doubling of gold imports to China to 1,300 tonnes (and that is just the official numbers, the BOC doesn’t have to declare its own purchases) and Comex gold stocks plunging this year to 1m oz ( with 56 owners for every oz), gold just cannot rise. The central bankers are still in charge of the shell game
In fact the charts are now starting to look ominous. The US dollar has launched itself like a rocket after falling right to strong support at 79c. This portends to a strong rally Lasting months. The timing was perfect, coming off the daily cycle low (30-40 days), the intermediate cycle low (3-4 months) and the yearly cycle low. Expect this rally to be significant and last for several months, probably until the fireworks start up again in Washington. If the US stock market finally comes back from the QE fuelled stratosphere the US dollar bounce will be even stronger as people flee to cash.
This is the perfect set up for a renewed plunge in gold. Gold has only managed to go sideways in the last 18 months when the US dollar falls into intermediate cycle lows. Then when the dollar rallies, gold gets smacked on the head by very big traders. Like those who can sell 500 tonnes of paper gold in the middle of the night “at market”!!!!!!!!!
My guess is that we are now on the way down to the 1,000-1,100 mark. At the 1,000 mark comes very, very strong support. This was the pre GFC peak and three times after that peak it bounced of 1,000 Before finally pushing through on its way to 1,920.
I believe this is where the manipulation will end, not because central bankers want it to, but because the physical demand will finally overwhelmed them and their paper contracts won’t be honoured When people demand delivery.