China announced this week that it’s notorious one child policy is to be relaxed…for people who are single children themselves. So let’s look at the bigger picture.
This policy came in during the 70’s when China was used to famine and feared more of the same with runaway population growth. This released hundreds of millions of people into the work force and freed them from child rearing. Combined with the economic revolution that started in 1978, China became the world’s factory and boomed. This masked the real cost of inflation in developed countries as the cost of products dropped dramatically in the 2000’s.
But something interesting happened last year. The supply of new workers for the factories dropped for the first time ever, with 3.45 million less workers available. This change will now accelerate and eventually result in the type of demographic and cultural death spiral that Japan is now in. Expect China to lose at least 25% of its population in the next 50 years. In fact China, Korea, Japan, France, Germany, Russia and a host of other countries are now in the early stages of this death spiral.
The birth rate needed to sustain a population is 2.1 per couple. The birth rate per couple in China is now 1.2, for the world it is 2.52, for the combined developed world it is 1.66 and for the Muslim world it is still closer to 3. The economic ramifications are astronomical to say the least. The entire economic model since industrialisation has been predicated on ever increasing population growth. This will be the century when this will cease.
For more detail on these developments go to youtube and type in “future demographics” and you will find my PowerPoint that I put up about 6 years ago (6,000 hits).