According to global economist Richard Duncan, since 1952 every time Total US Real Credit Growth fell below 2%, the US has experienced a recession. This correlation has been marked on 9 separate occassions. We are now below 2% and as a consequence the Federal Reserve will soon have little choice but to make a course correction in the current “Taper” monetary policy.
With a fiat monetary system you cannot have economic growth without a corresponding growth in debt. That’s why these red and blue bars are so closely linked. If credit growth does not pick up dramatically recession is certain, as is a reversal of the taper of the last few months.