There are so many conflicting signals out there in the god market right now, you would need all your hands and toes to count them all!
But this is what has me intrigued:
1. Gold has thrown up two big reversal bars on big volume in two weeks. The first took us up to $1306 before petering out. The second came out of the blue when I was expecting a breakdown on Friday night on the expected strong US jobs report. Yes it did breakdown and then promptly reversed and shot straight up $25, to $1300. In Monday trade today here in Australia it kept going to $1310, signalling a new trend. I took advantage of this and bought.
2. The moving averages are all so close together they are like the strands of a rope! The market is looking to me like it wants to make a low here. Most new bull markets pierce the 200 day moving average, then come back and successfully bounce off it. This gold market has now done this.
3. While the price has been in decline, the MACD has been quietly moving up, indicating a change of trend coming. Will the Ukraine be the trigger for a breakout from the tight sideways range? Whatever happens, energy is building and traders are getting frustrstion with these whipsaw moves.
4. Most of the commentators I read say the market will be down, but I just have this gut feeling it is turning. Is is at $1314 as I type.
5. And one more thing. May to October is the dead-letter-office for the US stock market. Stocks look toppy to me and are flattening off. A decline in stocks is good for sector rotation into gold. The dollar also looks like it is struggling.
Which means I was buying today…when I should have been buying on Friday!