Demographics is Destiny

Apologies for the long blog today!

Below is a quick summary of the opening section of a fascinating essay I wrote two years ago on the future of the 21st century. Some of my predictions in the essay are already unfolding. The economic, political, social, and spiritual implications for you personally are profound.

Young people create the future, not old people. Young people in non-western countries make up the vast majority of Christians and Muslims on the planet today. The great cultural and spiritual battle for the heart and soul of the 21st century will be between a youthful, dynamic and spiritually powerful Christianity finally freed from its western cultural baggage, and a militant, aggressive, reactionary intolerant Islamism that believes it’s time for world domination has come. Atheists are crowded into the aging western countries and tend not to breed a lot. They will struggle this century to maintain their cultural dominance. Below are some summarised details from the first few pages of the essay…

Demographics is simply population growth or decline in the future. It drives economics, and economics drives politics, resource depletion, environmental degradation, religious trends and the very future of us on planet earth. Current global demographic trends allow us to make create fairly safe predictions out to around 50 years into the future. This is simply because these people have already been born!

The population of the world is currently 7.4 billion. It is predicted to grow to 9 billion by 2050 and 10-12 billion by 2100. This growth represents a slowing of current growth trends. However with the recent surge in birth rates in Africa, the 2100 figure is up from the older prediction of a peak of 9 billion around 2050.

Much of the wealthy developed world goes into a disastrous demographic decline in the next decade or two. Asia tops out around 2050. The Middle East continues to grow demographically but with a slowing trend. The world’s poorest countries continue to grow through to the end of the century. Six countries currently account for 50% of global population growth: India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia. India is equal to China, Pakistan and Nigeria combined.

According to the CIA World Fact Book, some 83 countries out of 224 already have a fertility rate less than 2 children per female. The first country that recorded a fertility rate less than 2 was Japan. Japan is now the poster child for terminal population decline. Japan’s 1930’s baby boom reached its peak spending age in 1980, creating a pronounced economic bubble at that time known as the “Japanese miracle”. After 1980 the baby boomers of Japan started to age and spend less.

Thirty years later, in 2010, Japan’s population finally peaked at 128 million and it is now collapsing by 271,000 a year, a figure that will continue to increase every year unless Japan starts to import people. Japan is expected to have only 108 million people by 2050 and only 50 million people by 2100, if current trends continue.

The Japanese economy, like the entire global economy, is totally dependent on economic growth that is driven primarily by population growth. When this process reverses, so too does a nation’s wealth. The emerging demographic collapse will therefore decimate the Japanese economy, culture and its sense of identity in the world. Second world status will follow as cities drain, physical infrastructure collapses and people return to agriculture. The Japanese welfare state will also disappear, a template for the destruction of most western welfare systems.

China is set to join Japan in a demographic and economic death spiral, with a delay of forty years. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong are set to join China and Japan. The economic implications of the coming demographic collapse of the Asian dragons are catastrophic.

Europe is set to join the Asian Demographic decline, but at a much slower rate due to its openness to immigration. The populations of Italy, Germany and Slovenia already have already begun to fall. Since 2010 all population increases in the European Union as a whole have been purely due to immigration. The EU is set to lose approximately 20 million people by 2050 and its population will fall from approximately 500 million to 400 million by 2100, a 20% drop.

This trend is being fought with a massive program of immigration, mostly from Middle Eastern and African countries. Because the average age of a Muslim immigrant is 26, their birth rates are higher than European averages. In addition Islamic immigrants are not culturally integrating as expected, do not significantly intermarry, and they do not secularise to any great degree. If immigration continues and Muslim immigrant fertility rates remain just slightly above the European average for the rest of the century, we are on track to see 40% of Switzerland’s youth born into Muslim families by 2100. The figure for Austria is 54%. The Europe of the last thousand years is disappearing before our eyes. Civil unrest beckons. Europe is on track to become majority Muslim sometime in the middle of the 22nd century.

Europe’s old Caucasian colonies; America, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will survive, and perhaps even thrive, as they have a history of high immigration and successful assimilation. However, because of the woeful birth rates of the entire Western world, by 2100 only 10-12% of the world’s population will be Caucasian. The era of white men in suites dictating global affairs is drawing to a close.

Africa currently has 1.1 billion people, but if current trends continue then this figure will accelerate to over 5 billion by the end of this century when it is projected to overtake Asia as the world’s most populated continent. However it is doubtful this figure can be reached as most African countries are poor and unstable due to tribalism, corruption and nepotism. Coupled with emerging and potential climate changes, these are the conditions that create great waves of forced emigration. Expect to see huge numbers of black and Arab Africans pushing their way into the more stable and developed nations over the next hundred years. They will be bringing their culture, spirituality and values with them. Amazingly, this has already happened in the distant past, when much of Eastern Europe was overrun in the fourth century by Euasians, led by Attila the Hun’s armies, fleeing famine in Central Asia.

The Middle East currently has 205 million people, double its population in 1990. By 2050 the population of the Middle East is expected to double again, but on a sharply declining birth rate.

The Middle East is the driest region on earth and has no real first-world economies or history of economic development. They rely heavily on oil to keep their populations pacified and fed. The combination of climate change, population growth and faulty economics and perpetual political volatility, strongly suggest that this region will enter a period of intense energy wars, food and water shortages, military conflict, dislocation and desperate emigration. The future looks decidedly grim for the Middle East after their oil runs out.

Given the Western world’s reluctance to accept illegal immigrants from this region, expect to see geo-political-Islamic conflict increase substantially. Like Japan, the heart of Islam is heading for a cultural crisis that will cause it to ask many existential questions about its place in the world.

Because of the various demographic trends listed above, migration will become an ever increasing phenomenon in the future. In 2015 some 244 million people migrated, up from 150 million in 1990. These figures could accelerate to 400 or 500 million in the future, causing huge social unrest in the receiving nations, swamping their ability to cope. The 21st century looks like becoming the era when the 500 year era of Caucasian colonisation of the planet goes into reverse and the planet comes to them. Anyone alive for the next 50 years will have a window seat on one of the most unstable periods in world history.

Click here to read the rest of this fascinating look at our collective future.

Kevin